Left behind
Are California Progressives progressive enough?
Some California Democrats apparently have a case of Zohran-envy.
The newest darling of progressives, nightmare for moderate Democrats, and punching bag for Republicans is New York mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani. The Mamdani wave has crashed into California, with some progressives insisting his Democratic primary victory in New York can demonstrate a formula for success in California.
In San Francisco, where progressives have suffered political and criminal justice setbacks, his victory triggered “a mixture of progressive soul searching and celebration.”
California Labor Federation boss Lorena Gonzalez has let her frustrations fly to a reporter about accommodationist Democrats.
“There are days that I’m like, why am I still in this party?” she said. “When I see them cozy up to tech, when I see this abundance issue that streamlines worker protections, when I see this fascination with billionaires and this acquiescing to not taxing billionaires and not doing anything about rent control, you know, there’s a point where I’m like, come on, grow some b—, go decide who you’re for.”
To be sure, only in California can progressive Democrats bemoan a status quo that includes among the highest state taxes in the land, 8th highest total and public employment union coverage in the nation, near-universal Medi-Cal coverage for undocumented immigrants, world-leading regulation of greenhouse gas sources, and down-the-line compliance with progressive policies on abortion access and transgender identification and recognition.
The average vote for top-of-the-ticket Democrats (president or governor) in statewide races since the election of Barack Obama in 2008 is sixty percent.
Yet it’s true the political pendulum has been wobbling in its leftward arc.
Prosecutors in Los Angeles and San Francisco were turned out over a surge in voter concern on criminal justice matters, and the least progressive mayoral candidate in San Francisco prevailed on his platform of public safety and quality of life.
But never mind candidate elections, the most consistent backstop against the progressive agenda has been California statewide voters.
The tools conceived by the original California Progressives have become unwieldy to their modern incarnation. (Although today’s progressive tribe is more the heir to Upton Sinclair than Hiram Johnson, but that’s another story.)
California voters have consistently, and with increasing emphasis, rejected progressive positions on statewide ballot measures, even as the left has taken up the tools of direct democracy.
I evaluated the 86 statewide ballot measures considered by voters during the Jerry Brown and Gavin Newsom administrations over seven election years, including measures placed on the ballot by the Legislature. Of those 86 measures, I identified 46 that could be coded “progressive” or “conservative.” (I dub them “ideological” rather than “partisan,” although that doesn’t mean there aren’t economic interests motivating them: there usually are.) The other measures may have been contentious, but did not necessarily follow ideological lines, like bond measures. I undoubtedly made some judgements on pegging a measure as left or right or neither that you could quibble over, but I don’t think these close calls disturb the overall trends. (I’ll post separately my spreadsheet, if you’re inclined to check my work.)
Overall, since 2012 voters rejected the progressive positions on 27 of the 46 ideological ballot measures (59%). The trend was most pronounced during the Newsom Administration, when voters rejected progressive positions on 15 of 20 questions (75%).
The best outcome for progressives was 2016, when they prevailed on seven of 11 measures; the worst was 2020 and 2024, when one or two passed.
Most of the ideological ballot measures were initiatives, although eight were placed on the ballot by the Legislature, such as revisiting the bar on affirmative action and enshrining reproductive rights in the Constitution. Of the 38 ideological initiative measures, most were placed on the ballot by progressive interests, which apparently were frustrated that elected Democrats, especially during the Brown Administration, were not progressive enough. It just isn’t true that initiatives are tools of anti-government activists. It’s more likely these days that the initiative will be used by supporters of the parties in government – who think their allies are simply not going far enough.
The logical next steps for progressives would be to maintain their influence in the Legislature and elect an even more sympathetic chief executive. The ballot measure route promises the least return on investment.
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